In my previous article, “5 Reasons Comic Books Must Change or Die,” I offered several elements that are contributing to the death of the comic book industry. But today, I’m going to outline some ways that comics can change for the better… and cheat death to live on in the digital era.
But first, let’s take a moment to gain some perspective. According to CBGXtra.com, In May, 2008, 7.08 million copies of the top 300 comic books were sold, with the top ten accounting for 15% of the entire market. ICv2’s analysis says that both comic book and graphic novel sales are slowing down, and that the quarter overall has been weak. I should add that these numbers are not representative of what fans are buying; these are repesentative of what retailers are ordering. Many of the retailers I’ve spoken to claim to only sell around 50-60% of all of the books they order in the first month. That means that sales to readers are closer to the 3-4 million range.
There’s no question that these numbers are better than the numbers 10 years ago, when 6.99 million copies were sold in May, or the numbers from 5 years ago, when 5.63 million copies were sold in May. (Comparing actual dollar sales is not a fair analysis since books have gone up 33% in price over 10 years.) But that’s nowhere near the 11 million copies that sold in September, 1996, when Diamond first took over distribution to the direct market. And, for what it’s worth, 1996 was one of the years when the industry was in a sharp decline.
In other words, the comic book industry managed to turn itself around from extinction, but ultimately, the industry is stagnating. That means earnings will level off, investments will dry up, and retailers will go bust. The industry may have righted itself for the short term, but in the face of a declining economy, it may have simply delayed its demise.
Fortunately, there are ways that the comic book industry can plant new seeds for growth. But what I need to make clear here is that the current industry, with its overemphasis on superheroes and collectibles, may prove hostile and infertile to these new ideas. The next generation of comic book creators will need to look outside the established direct market, and they will likely have to carve out a new niche of their own. The next generation of comics may simply be a larger part of the publishing industry as a whole, fragmented into different genres and scattered around bookstores with their respective topics. And as digital options become more and more available, it’s quite likely that successful indy books will start out online, and not in print, in the near future.
But a lot of this will come at the expense of the next generation of creators separating themselves from the icons of the industry. So, with that said, let’s look at my own vision for changes the medium can use for growth over the next ten years:
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